75% of utility-scale energy sources built in 2022 were renewables

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released its full-year data update and reports that 74.1% of new utility-scale generating capacity added in 2022 came from renewable energy sources.

New utility-scale solar capacity was 9,924 MW or 39.6% of the total (not including residential solar systems). New wind capacity provided 8,512 MW or 33.9% of the total. Solar and wind each comfortably surpassed the 6,469 MW of new natural gas capacity (25.8%).

Including geothermal (90 MW), biomass (31 MW) and hydropower (24 MW), capacity additions by the mix of renewable energy sources accounted for 18,581 MW of the 25,085 MW in new generating capacity by all sources. Oil added 18 MW and nuclear increased by 17 MW; there were no new additions reported for coal.

Thus, by the end of 2022, renewable energy sources collectively provided 27.3% of the total available installed generating capacity in the United States with wind’s share (143,280 MW) being 11.4% and that of solar (80,400 MW) expanding to 6.4%. Renewables’ share of U.S. generating capacity was 24.1% in December 2020 and only 17.8% in December 2015.

The recent growth in new solar and wind generating capacity significantly surpasses that which had been forecast by FERC just three years earlier, finds the SUN DAY Campaign. At that time, FERC had reported that “high probability” additions of new solar between January 2020 and December 2022 would total 19,973 MW. Instead, new solar capacity grew by 38,530 MW — virtually double FERC’s forecast.

Similarly, FERC had anticipated 26,403 MW of net “high probability” new wind capacity to be added during that three-year period. Instead, wind grew by 41,350 MW, or 56.6% more than forecast.

Looking forward, FERC is now projecting that over the next three years, net “high probability” solar capacity additions could total 75,642 MW and thereby nearly double solar’s current capacity. Moreover, “all additions” in the three-year solar pipeline could actually total 214,006 MW. Meanwhile, FERC expects net “high probability” wind additions to total 18,211 MW, representing a 12.7% increase, with the possibility of all net additions reaching 76,012 MW.

Net “high probability” additions for natural gas would be only 511 MW — a figure lower than the net “high probability” additions for just hydropower (574 MW). The situation is even grimmer for the other fossil fuels with coal capacity projected to fall by 26,715 MW and that of oil to decline by 1,728 MW. FERC also foresees total nuclear capacity decreasing by 123 MW.

If FERC’s three-year forecast proves accurate, by the end of 2025, renewable energy sources would account for almost one-third (33.0%) of total available installed generating capacity in the United States. Of that, wind and solar would account for nearly equal shares: wind-12.2% and solar-11.8%. Keeping in mind, however, the degree to which FERC underestimated wind and solar growth during the past three years, U.S. generating capacity by the mix of all renewables by 2025 could end up being significantly higher than FERC now expects.

“Renewable sources, led by solar and wind, are now adding almost two percentage points each year to their share of the nation’s electrical generating capacity,” noted the SUN DAY Campaign’s executive director Ken Bossong. “If that pace continues or accelerates — as seems likely — renewables will be providing a third of total installed generating capacity within three years and quite possibly more.”

News item from SUN DAY